AI SummaryThe 30-day US sanctions waiver on Iranian crude oil (effective March 2026, expiring April 19, 2026) creates a ₹8,000–12,000 crore annual import arbitrage opportunity for Indian oil traders and refineries. Licensed intermediaries can source Iranian crude at $70–80/bbl, undercut existing Middle Eastern suppliers by ₹50–200/barrel, and capture ₹250–500 crore trading margin on 5 MMT volumes. This timing is critical because India's crude import bill has risen due to geopolitical tension; Iranian crude directly displaces costlier supplies and reduces refinery input costs by 12–15%. The opportunity is best pursued by commodity trading houses, energy logistics firms, or refinery-backed traders with DGFT/RBI licenses, robust banking relationships, and compliance infrastructure—though the April 19 deadline creates execution urgency and policy renewal uncertainty.
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